On2Off

Apple 2.0's Q1 2012 "Whisper" Numbers

parislemon:

Based on six analysts with the best track records, Philip Elmer-DeWitt compiles his best guess for the Q1 (Apple’s holiday quarter) numbers Apple will announce tomorrow. These are analysts who typically update their numbers over time and, notably, aren’t necessarily Wall Street analysts (who generally blow at guessing about all things Apple-related).

If he’s close, my prediction from October 18 (the day Apple announced Q4 numbers) that this quarter would not only be Apple’s first $30 billion quarter, but first $40 billion quarter, looks very good. Elmer-DeWitt’s numbers have revenues coming in at a cool $42.76 billion.

Such a number would constitute a massive blow-out. Apple’s previous revenue record is $28.57 billion, hit in Q3 2011. Again, if the numbers hold, Apple could see a quarter almost exactly 50% better than their previous record quarter. That would be insane.

It would also further prove that last quarter’s miss was simply because analysts were lazy and failed to recognize the impact moving the iPhone launch a quarter later would have.  

It’s worth noting that Elmer-DeWitt’s whisper numbers were off last quarter as well. But again, all analysts were off, so it’s no surprise that an average of the best would be off as well. 

DeWitt’s craziest number has to be iPhone sales of 33 million. The previous record was 20.24 million iPhones sold (again, in Q3 2011). It would also be eerily close to the projection of 34 million iPhones sold if you extrapolated out Verizon’s stated numbers. And it would directly speak to the recent NPD and Nielsen numbers that iPhone has closed the gap with Android sales in the U.S. 

Apple is on an absolute heater. There is no denying their rise to the top. I know Droid users loooooove to put their user numbers out there, but honestly this means nothing to me. Apple sells ONE phone in three tiers. Projecting roughly 34 million iPhones sold in one quarter is a mind blowing number. I would love to see Samsung or HTC put any one of their phone sales numbers side by side with the iPhone. Google wins on being able to pull money from multiple companies for use droid software, I’ll give them that. If anyone understands Apple culture like I do, Apple isn’t in the mobile game for just the money. Steve Jobs never let money be the main motivating factor when making business decisions. The iPhone is capable of such staggering numbers because the phone is built around usability and the end user. In this day and age, where retailers are getting killed, Apple stores remain packed even on a Tuesday afternoon!